The Cattle Range Home Page
November 9, 2017
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November 9th: USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef, pork, and turkey production more than offsets higher broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter and lighter carcass
weights. The pork production forecast is reduced as lower expected fourth-quarter commercial hog slaughter more than offsets slightly heavier carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised on third-quarter slaughter data, but no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast. The turkey forecast is reduced slightly on lower than expected thirdquarter slaughter data; no change is made to the fourth quarter forecast. 

For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production more than offsets lower turkey production. Beef production is raised from last month as higher expected placements in the latter part of 2017 and first-half 2018 are expected to support higher marketings and fed cattle slaughter in 2018. However, carcass weights are expected to be slightly lower. Pork production is raised from last month on higher expected first-quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights; no changes are made to outlying quarters. The 2018 broiler production forecast is unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts are lowered on weakness in prices which will dampen expansion in 2018. 

The beef import forecast for 2017 is raised from the previous month, but no changes are made to the 2018 beef import forecasts. Beef export forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised from the previous month on expected strong global demand for U.S. beef. For 2017, the pork import forecast was reduced fractionally on recent third-quarter trade data, but no change is made to the outlying pork import forecasts. The 2017 and 2018 pork export forecasts are lowered from the previous month on slower-than-expected export demand in the third quarter which will carry forward into 2018. Both 2017 and 2018 broiler export forecasts are reduced from the previous month on an expected slower pace in global demand. The annual turkey import forecast is reduced for 2017, while the export forecast is
raised. No changes are made to 2018 turkey trade forecasts.

Cattle prices are raised for 2017 and first-half 2018. The hog price forecast is unchanged for 2017, but the first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is reduced on larger slaughter hog availability. However, the annual hog price forecast remains unchanged. The 2017 and 2018 broiler price forecasts remain unchanged from the previous month. Turkey price forecasts are lowered for both 2017 and 2018 reflecting current price weakness. 

WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2017/18 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels due to increased exports. Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with Hard Red Winter accounting for the entire increase. The latest NASS Flour Millings Products report, issued November 1, indicated only a modest increase for food use for 2016/17 and supported the current projection of 950 million bushels for 2017/18. Ending stocks are projected at 935 million bushels, down 246 million from the previous year but still above the 5-year-average. The season-average farm price is unchanged at a midpoint of $4.60. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are down fractionally with decreased beginning stocks but increased production. Global production is raised 0.8 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for the EU on updated harvest results. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Pakistan. Exports are raised 0.6 million tons with the United States and Russia up 0.7 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. Australia exports are lowered 0.5 million. Global use is raised fractionally this month. With supplies decreasing and total use increasing, ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons but remain
record large.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use and exports, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1,322.6 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced consumption, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam that are only partially
offset by an increase for the European Union. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Sorghum production in Mexico is lowered based on area indications from the government and lower forecast yields as a result of the prevalence of the sugarcane aphid.

Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine but raised for the United States. Imports are raised for Mexico and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. China’s barley imports are raised reflecting expectations of continued demand for imported feedstuffs. Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China, Vietnam, Canada, and Ukraine that more than offset increases for the EU and Argentina. Global corn stocks, at 203.9 million tons, are up 2.9 million from last month.

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