12th: USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
POULTRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is reduced
from last month as decreases in commercial beef and broiler production
more than offset increases in pork and turkey production. Second-half beef
production forecasts are reduced, reflecting a slower expected marketing
pace for fed cattle although cow slaughter is higher. The third and fourth
quarter broiler production forecasts are reduced on hatchery data and the
current pace of slaughter. The 2017 pork production forecast is raised
on higher expected carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs
and Pigs report on September 28, providing an indication of producer farrowing
intentions into early 2018. Third-quarter turkey production forecast is
raised slightly, but no changes are made to the outlying quarter. For 2018,
the beef production forecast is lowered from the previous month as a slower
rate of placements during the second-half of 2017 is expected to result
in reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of 2018. Annual
pork production is reduced slightly from the previous month while the poultry
forecast for 2018 is unchanged.
Cattle prices are
reduced from last month for the remainder of 2017 and into early 2018 on
current price weakness. The hog price forecast for 2017 is lowered, but
the 2018 price forecast remains unchanged. The annual broiler price forecasts
for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged. The turkey price forecast is reduced for
2017 as slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset
by expected declines in the fourth quarter; the 2018 forecast is unchanged.
month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased production, greater
feed and residual use, higher ending stocks, and lower prices. Corn production
is forecast at 14.184 billion bushels, up 32 million from last month. Corn
supplies are up from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small
decline in beginning stocks due to updated use estimates for 2016/17. Feed
and residual use for 2017/18 is raised 25 million bushels with a larger
crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol for 2017/18 is projected
down 25 million bushels at 5.475 billion, based on observed usage during
2016/17 and expectations of lower exports. Other industrial use is lowered
50 million bushels. With supply increasing and use falling, corn ending
stocks are up 62 million bushels from last month. The projected range for
the season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents
on both ends to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
Global coarse grain
production for 2017/18 is forecast up 2.4 million tons to 1,316.5 million.
The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, slightly
lower consumption, reduced trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.
Foreign corn production is forecast to decline relative to last month with
reductions for Serbia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting
increases for Argentina and Mexico. The projected corn yield for Ukraine
is reduced based on heat and dryness during the month of August. In Argentina,
corn area is raised from last month and is now forecast to be record high.
Barley production is raised for Russia and Canada, but lowered for Argentina
and the EU.
Corn exports are
lowered for Serbia and Russia, but increased for Ukraine. Despite a smaller
crop, Ukraine’s relatively large exportable supplies and logistical advantages
are expected to fill demand for imported corn in the EU. Brazil’s 2016/17
exports are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2017. Foreign
corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are virtually unchanged from last month,
with declines for Brazil, Serbia, Ukraine, and Russia offset by increases
for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 202.5 million tons, are
up 1.6 million from last month.
U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last
month. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the
midpoint to a range of $4.30 to $4.90. The reduction is due to NASS prices
to date and expectations of future cash prices.
Global wheat supplies
for 2017/18 are lowered as a 1.7-million-ton production increase is offset
by a 2.7-million-ton decrease in beginning stocks. The primary production
increase is for Russia, which is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 81.0
million tons; this change is based on excellent growing conditions and
updated harvest results. Australia production for 2017/18 is lowered 1.0
million tons on dry conditions, and the EU is lowered 0.7 million tons.
In addition, historical production changes for Australia led to lower global
ending stocks. The 2015/16 Australia production change is on updated Australia
Bureau of Statistics data which lowered harvested area 1.5 million hectares.
Australia’s 2016/17 harvested area is lowered 0.5 million hectares. Global
trade for 2017/18 is essentially unchanged. However, exports are increased
1.0 million tons for Russia on the larger crop, 0.5 million tons for Ukraine,
and 0.3 million tons for Turkey. These are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton
reduction for EU exports and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia.
Total global use is up 0.5 million tons. With total supplies declining
and use increasing, global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons.